São Paulo, June 12, 2025 – The illegal online betting market in Brazil, made up of unlicensed operators acting outside the newly implemented regulation, represents a serious multibillion-real problem for public coffers and a trap for uninformed bettors. That’s the conclusion of the unprecedented study “Off the Radar: Size and Socioeconomic Impacts of the Illegal Betting Market in Brazil”, conducted by LCA Consultores and supported by IBJR (Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming). The data is guided by the survey “Incidence of Illegal Betting in Brazil” by Instituto Locomotiva, which maps bettor behavior and reveals their difficulty in identifying which platforms operate legally in the country.
Conducted between April and May 2025 with 2,000 adult bettors, the Instituto Locomotiva survey served as the basis for the economic analysis prepared by LCA. The study estimates that between 41% and 51% of the Brazilian betting market still operates illegally. The activity of these unregulated platforms reflects an alarming tax impact: between R$1.8 billion and R$2.7 billion in revenue was lost in just three months — which could total R$10.8 billion in one year. For comparison, that amount would be enough to pay the annual salary of up to 184,000 basic education teachers or build up to 41,000 houses through the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program.
“The numbers are staggering and show the urgency of effectively fighting the illegal market. Paradoxically, just five months after agreeing on operational conditions with the licensed operators, the government rewards illegal platforms by increasing the tax burden on the regulated ones. This breaks trust and generates enormous legal uncertainty for the sector and for Brazil. Everyone loses — operators are suffocated by taxes, bettors are left without the protections of the formal market, and the government, by stimulating illegality, ends up hurting not only the market but its own tax collection,” says Fernando Vieira, Executive President of IBJR.
The sector’s regulation, in effect since January 1, 2025, mandates that only licensed operators may legally operate in the country, under tax obligations, operational rules, and various bettor protection mechanisms. Still, 61% of respondents admitted to having placed bets on unregulated platforms this year — often unaware of the risks involved.
“After creating and implementing a modern regulation in Brazil, the challenge now is to carry out a well-coordinated and intensive fight against the illegal market. Reducing the illegal market brings a range of benefits to Brazilian society, from protecting bettors and fighting organized crime to increasing government revenue, which is essential in this time of fiscal crisis,” says Eric Brasil, Director of Regulation and Public Policy at LCA Consultores.
Vulnerable Consumer
Data from the Instituto Locomotiva survey raise concerns about consumers’ ability to identify legal platforms:
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78% find it difficult to distinguish between legal and illegal sites;
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72% say they cannot always verify the regularity of platforms;
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46% of respondents have deposited money on a platform later identified as fake or irregular.
Moreover, 73% of bettors say they have used at least one of the illegal platforms mapped in 2025. The incidence of bettors in the illegal market is even higher among populations with lower income and education levels, leaving them outside the protection mechanisms of regulated platforms (such as facial recognition, loss and time limits).
Still according to the Locomotiva survey, tactics used by illegal operators include using names similar to those of legalized brands, frequently changing domains, and unregulated advertising through digital influencers, with deceptive promises of easy profit. Despite efforts by authorities — which have already taken down over 11,000 illegal domains — these sites continue to operate, often hosted on international servers and domains.
“Consumer confusion is exploited by these illegal operators. That’s why it’s essential to run educational campaigns, reinforce clear communication about the risks, and ensure that regulatory bodies act firmly in monitoring and severely punishing violators,” highlights Renato Meirelles, President of Instituto Locomotiva.
The Locomotiva survey also shows that 87% of bettors believe the public authorities should take strong action against irregular betting platforms. The data goes beyond a sector diagnosis. It is an urgent call for coordinated action among authorities, licensed operators, and civil society to protect citizens and ensure the integrity and sustainability of Brazil’s betting market.
How to know if a betting site is safe?
When betting on an online platform, security should be a priority. There are important indicators that help consumers identify whether a site is trustworthy. For example, platforms authorized by the Secretariat for Prizes and Betting (SPA):
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Must use the “.bet.br” domain;
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Have a strict registration system that requires facial recognition to prevent access by minors under 18, along with document verification and other checks to identify the bettor;
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Offer the ability to set limits on financial losses and playing time, as well as mechanisms to detect risky betting behavior and send alerts;
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Only allow transactions via PIX and debit from the account of the registered holder – they do not accept credit cards or cryptocurrencies;
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Offer self-exclusion mechanisms for bettors.
If in doubt, the list of betting sites approved to operate in Brazil can be found on the Ministry of Finance website.
About IBJR
The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) was founded in 2023 and brings together the leading betting companies in Brazil and the world. Our mission is to build an honest, sustainable, and responsible online betting ecosystem, always advocating for a regulated market.
Our work is based on two essential pillars: fighting the illegal market and promoting responsible gaming. We believe that effective regulation is fundamental to boosting the sector, strengthening the economy, and ensuring safety for both bettors and operators. That is why we work actively to combat illegal bets, which operate outside the law, harm the industry, and put all of society at risk.
For more information about IBJR, visit: www.ibjr.org.br
About Instituto Locomotiva
Instituto Locomotiva works to show that there are people and stories behind every number. We take an in-depth look at the population that lives, consumes, and dreams in Brazil, so that our numbers have history and identity. With this, we turn research results into knowledge and strategy, expanding the possibilities for companies, institutions, and organizations, helping to build identity between them and their audiences, and generating indicators capable of fostering public debate. Our work is to be the voice of the people and a beacon for the data that really matters.
About LCA
LCA is a consulting firm specializing in providing customized solutions in applied economics for businesses, supporting leading companies in various sectors, top law firms, and major investors in their strategic planning, tactical decisions, and technical support for regulatory, competition, and legal matters. With a team of economists with strong academic and professional backgrounds, LCA is known for building long-term partnerships based on quality, flexibility, and senior-level service. The firm has exported its services to more than 25 countries and has received several awards for excellence in over 450 annual projects. LCA operates in the areas of Law & Economics and Corporate Finance & Investments.